Alan K. Henderson's Weblog

This year's Nobel Peace Prize goes to Mohamed ElBaradei and the International Atomic Energy Agency. What does this agency do? It essentially negotiates with hostile nations with the intention to persuade them to stop their nuclear programs. Has any of those negotiations been successful? No - Iran and North Korea are going full speed ahead with their programs, and Pakistan won't grant IAEA access to nuclear black marketeer Abdul Qadeer Khan, who is currently under house arrest.

The IAEA is to would-be nuclear powers what Elmer Fudd is to Bugs Bunny.

Only two nuclear programs have folded in recent times - in Libya, which caved to US intimidation, and in Saddam Hussein's Iraq, which caved to a military invasion. The IAEA didn't even know about Qadaffi's nuclear skullduggery, and ElBaradei won't even acknowledge that Iraq still had a nuke program in this decade, despite the discovery of enriched uranium and centrifuge blueprints and components. The Institute for Science and International Security has a three-part 2003 report on the gas centrifuge program - see here, here, and here. Part III summarizes the risk:

Iraq acquired, and still possesses, a remarkable amount of classified and sensitive information about gas centrifuges. It gained considerable experience in gas centrifuges and has had over a decade to ponder its weaknesses and strengths.

Iraq poses a risk in that its centrifuge information could pass to irresponsible agents or other nations, some of which may be seeking nuclear weapons. Even advanced nations would find Iraq's centrifuge information useful to their civil nuclear programs. Few countries have information about 3-meter Urenco centrifuges.

Read my original post on the Nobel Peace prize.