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Sunday, October 07, 2012

 
Why I Don't Trust White House Or Congressional Budget Office Estimates



"THERE WILL BE NO TRILLION-DOLLAR DEFICITS AFTER 2010!"

That's what the original 2009 budget estimates claimed, but the actual figures tell a different story. Glenn Reynolds has a modified version of the famous debt chart with the actual budget figures included.

The CBO and the administration got it wrong in both the short-term and the long-term. The famous debt chart came out in 2009, and the 2009 estimate was off by about $400 billion - the estimates were roughly 30 percent bigger than the actual deficit.

The 2010 deficit was at roughly the average between the White House and CBO estimates. But the two years after that, the budget astrologers' darts aren't even hitting the dart board.

Keep this in mind next time some White House official or member of Congress steps before a microphone and tells us that the new proposal will cost or save X amount of dollars.

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