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Friday, August 26, 2005

 
A Worst-Case Scenario

Imagine that appeasement mom Cindy Sheehan gets her way, and we pull out our troops before Iraq is politically and militarily stabilized. What would happen? I am quite certain that both would occur:

  1. The loose bands of guerilla forces originating from within and without Iraq (the so-called "insurgents") would escalate their attacks against Iraqi soldiers and civilians.
  2. In the fashion of Fidel Castro's guerilla war against Batista, one or more terrorist leaders would attempt a coup against the central government.

I also wonder if two other results are possible:

  1. Iran will arm some "insurgent" groups in order to weaken and distract Iraqi forces, and at the right moment will stage a full-scale invasion, taking the Shi'ite regions at the very least.
  2. If the national government is overthrown or otherwise loses effective control over the nation, the Kurds could seek permanent independence, or may put together a provisional government and promise the enraged Turks that it's only temporary measure to last until Iraq gets put back together again.

Opinions? I'd especially like to hear some input on Iran's reaction to a destabilized Iraq. The presence of coalition forces in Iraq is certainly one reason Iran doesn't invade now. Is there any reason why the mullahs would hold back from invasion even if they knew that a wussified White House would let them get away with it?




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